Sensex Rises 271 Points as Markets Await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh First Rate Decision

Indian equity markets extended their winning streak to a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, with the BSE Sensex gaining 271 points to close at 76,992 and the Nifty 50 holding above the 24,000 mark. The cautious optimism comes as global investors await the first Federal Reserve rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Markets at a Glance

Kevin Warsh First Fed Test

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting, where Chair Kevin Warsh will preside over his first FOMC decision. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 97.4% of traders expect rates to remain unchanged. A Reuters poll of 102 economists found 72 expect no rate change through the rest of 2026.

Warsh, who took over from Jerome Powell earlier this year, is seen as a pragmatic centrist. His first policy statement will be scrutinised for signals about the Fed stance on inflation, which ticked up to 3.93% in India in May 2026 from 3.48% in April — a data point that RBI will be watching closely.

Key Movers

Bharti Airtel led gains among Sensex constituents, rising 0.39% to Rs 1,860. Oil prices hovering near three-month lows have also provided a tailwind for Indian markets, easing concerns about imported inflation. India imports over 85% of its crude oil requirements.

India-Canada FTA and Global Trade

Positive sentiment was also supported by progress in India-Canada Free Trade Agreement talks following the Modi-Carney bilateral at the G7 Summit. A potential FTA could open new export markets for Indian IT services and pharmaceuticals.

What to Watch

Analysts at Ventura Securities noted that the first rate cut by the Fed could come between September and December 2026 if inflation continues to soften. The RBI, which has its own policy review in August, is expected to maintain its current stance until there is clarity from the US.

Sources: India TV News, Trading Economics, Bloomberg, Hindu BusinessLine, CME FedWatch