Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump are set to hold their first face-to-face bilateral meeting in over 16 months on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Evian, France, on Tuesday — a high-stakes encounter that will test whether the two leaders can repair a relationship strained by tariffs, military strikes, and geopolitical divergence.
The Agenda: Three Critical Issues
The meeting comes at a pivotal moment in India-US relations. Three issues dominate the agenda: progress on a long-awaited bilateral trade agreement, the deaths of three Indian sailors in recent US military strikes on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, and coordination on the evolving Middle East situation.
On trade, both sides are working to finalize a limited deal that could reduce tariffs on select goods and ease technology transfer restrictions. The US had imposed heavy tariffs on Indian goods in 2025, and India is seeking relief for its pharmaceutical, textile, and engineering goods exports.
Indian Sailors Killed in US Strikes
The deaths of three Indian sailors in US military actions targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz has added a layer of tension to the meeting. India has privately conveyed its concerns to Washington, and the issue is expected to be raised by Modi directly. The incident highlights the human cost of the ongoing instability in the world most critical oil transit chokepoint.
Hormuz and Energy Security
The Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed to shipping traffic following months of US-Iran military confrontation. While a ceasefire extension is being negotiated and oil prices have fallen to three-month lows on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, the EIA still forecasts Brent crude at $105 per barrel for June-July 2026 under the assumption of continued restrictions.
For India, which imports over 85% of its crude oil, the Hormuz situation is an existential energy security concern. India has been diversifying its crude sources — increasing imports from Russia, the US, and Latin America — but the Gulf remains irreplaceable in the short term.
What to Expect
Analysts expect a pragmatic outcome. Both leaders need a win: Trump wants a trade deal to showcase his negotiating prowess, while Modi needs tariff relief and a de-escalation of military tensions in India extended neighbourhood. The meeting is also an opportunity to reset the personal chemistry that defined the Modi-Trump relationship during Trump first term.
Sources: Outlook India, News18, Times of India, Reuters, EIA
